KUALA LUMPUR, May 12 — Even some of his Cabinet colleagues say it is only a matter of time. A matter of time before Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin declares his intention to contest either the number one or number two position at the Umno election in December. And a matter of time before Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi asks him to consider resigning as the Minister of International Trade and Industry.

The majority view among senior Umno leaders is that if Muhyiddin offers himself for the deputy president or president’s position, he is in fact saying that he disagrees with the succession plan drawn up by Abdullah, and supported by the party’s supreme council. Under this plan, Abdullah will defend his top post in the party and then hand over power to his deputy, Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak, a year or two down the road.

A former MP and division chief said: "Muhyiddin cannot remain in government if he wants to go for broke. It is simple as that. He will either have to step down on his own or be sacked. Can Pak Lah’s trust someone who is trying to defeat him or his deputy to perform well as a minister? If this government does well between now and December, it will be more difficult for anyone to challenge Pak Lah and Najib. So will a potential challenger really be interested in helping this government?"

Muhyiddin’s political ambitions went into overdrive on Sunday after the front-page report in The Star. One of three vice-president’s in the party, he said that many advisers say that he should climb up the party hierarchy.

Q: You are not ruling out the possibility of going for the No. 1, or No. 2 post?

A: I don’t know. I have to size up a lot of things. Some people say (to me), "You have been vice-president for the last three terms. Maybe now you have to look at something else." But I have to be prudent as this is not an easy process. You have to know that you are facing incumbents, the powers-that-be. It is not going to be a straight path that you can go through easily. I’m always calculating, to make sure I will not fall down halfway through. So, we will see what is going to happen.

On its own this answer is nothing more than a fishing expedition. Muhyiddin was quick to deny any such desire to climb up the political ladder at the party’s 62nd anniversary, saying that he had not made any such declaration in the newspaper report.

But taken together with some of his statements and actions behind closed doors, there is a growing belief even among his Cabinet and supreme council colleagues that Muhyiddin is ready to go for broke. They note his body language, his opposition to government initiatives such as the Judicial Appointments Commission and his ambivalent statements about the succession plan.

Party officials also know that supporters of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad reached out to the former Johor Menteri Besar after Najib indicated that he would stay loyal to the party president and allow him to set his own timetable of departure.

For Muhyiddin, going for broke is a natural path to take. If he accepts the succession plan, he could remain the number 3 in the party till the next party elections and his ambition of becoming the PM could be gone forever.

The succession plan calls for Najib to take over power a year or two after the party elections in December. When he does become the president, the choice of his deputy will be up to him. Usually, the top vote-getter among the vice-presidents has the best chance of being elevated.

But this is not cast in stone. Najib could go with any of the three vice-presidents – an uncertainty Muhyiddin cannot afford to risk. The MITI minister has for a long time felt that he was more qualified for higher office and was disappointed when Abdullah picked Najib instead of him as the deputy prime minister.

Currently, the only impediment to Muhyiddin declaring his intention to contest either party or deputy president is the quota rule. He is unsure if the unhappiness on the ground over Abdullah’s role in BN poor performance in the polls will translate to something tangible – like the 58 nominations he needs to qualify to challenge either Abdullah or Najib.

So far he has not reached out to Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah. Both of them want the quota rule removed but appear to have fundamental differences over the political road map. The Kelantan prince has a more inclusive approach, believing that Umno needs to be attractive to all Malaysians while Muhyiddin has voiced concern over the loss of political power of the Malays.

Also, Ku Li, as he is popularly known, is only interested in going for the number one position in the party. It is unclear if Muhyiddin will want to play second fiddle to him or anyone else.

What is clear is that Abdullah is going to come under pressure to do something if Muhyiddin goes for broke. He may expect Muhyiddin to resign as Musa Hitam did in 1986, citing differences with Tun Dr Mahathir. Or he may have to act out of character and force the MITI minister out.